Pestle and Mortar : Getting the ingredients right in times of uncertainty and volatility

Does grinding out the right results largely depend on how you analyse your PESTLE?    The macro and micro of things Political, Economic, Sociological, Technological, Legal and Environmental.

Will you create a recipe for disaster or success? What are the right ingredients and how do you create an original formula, which will work for all concerned, given the current amount of ambiguity and complex circumstances facing us all?                                                                                                                                                                                                                  How to think about “risk” keeps rising up the agenda in discussions at institutions whether public or private. So what attitudes and behaviours are required by decision makers? How can you determine the correct motivating factors for successful decision making in your MORTAR?! By applying and creating within your discussions:

  • REALISTIC & RIGOROUS RESULTS SETTING AGENDAS                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Are you confused and dazed or just in need of support? We can aid and help you traverse these tricky times which we are all confronting. Please get in touch.
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Delving deeper into the data and the detail to determine distinctive new directions of travel.

The government of the United Kingdom anticipate that the creation and use of data will add over £240 billion to our economy by 2020.Some prediction and along the way a new act of parliament to replace the Data Protection Act 1998 will be enacted.Meanwhile the new EU General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) should come into force in May 2018. Plenty to comply with and think about.Now is the time to reflect on the use of data and we can help you discover growth opportunities for the business you operate (you will probably need to discuss the matter with your preferred legal partner in the process as well.) The risks and opportunities abound.We can help you construct a way forward to reap the benefits from delving deeper into the data and detail you already have to hand. Please get in touch soon.

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Help to create your next dream scenario.

As you begin to embrace experimentation and innovation to enhance the organisation’s assets, are you sufficiently aware of the potential ahead for accidents and emergencies at the bend in the road?

In the search for those Aha! and Eureka! moments don’t you need external advice, objective insights and support to the potential decisions you are likely to make? We can aid and enable your risk awareness capabilities through our knowledge, and help you to see through the complexity ahead in this new economic era.

You never know we may even bring some new exciting and exclusive ideas to the table through the use of our intelligent imagination.


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Spring is in the air.Time to get the “Vacuum” out?!

Since we do not all think the same way as individuals, how do you justify to those that matter the risky decisions you make as organisations? What analysis of the internal and external economic, political and social factors affecting your organisation should you apply? There are many frameworks for you work with.We can offer you “VACUUM.” A method for understanding where the volatility is coming from, an ability to test your assumptions of the external world in which you operate.We will help you create scenarios which are factually credible.We will enable you to fully appreciate the parameters of uncertainty surrounding you.We will allow you to foresee the unintended consequences of the risks you take. You should then be able to deliver the meaningful outcomes you said you would.Results fully reflecting the objectives you set yourselves.

No time like the present to review your thinking given the unprecedented uncertainty we are currently living with as individuals and organisations. Now more than ever you need to consider our risk-based decision making processes.

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Mastering the challenges and complexities of Solvency II

The scale and scope of the directive lies within the three main areas of:

* Valuation of assets/liabilities and the capital requirements arising to ensure       policyholders get their claims paid within a satisfactory time frame.The use of a model or data obtained from a third party should not be considered to be a justification for exemption from any of the requirements for building a satisfactory internal model.

* Systems of governance and risk management, which includes, compliance, internal audit, and the actuarial functions.This system to cover at least, underwriting and reserving, asset liability management, investment in particular derivatives and similar commitments, liquidity, concentration  and/or operational risk management, reinsurance and other  risk mitigation techniques.

* Reporting and disclosure, which encompasses what information to report, how and to whom.Policyholders both existing and potential plus other interested parties should be better able to understand the business being carried out by the entity being regulated and covered by the legislation.

So if risk is a very subjective matter and dynamic in nature and effect, should you introduce an outside view to avoid group think and internal vested interests in the journey to compliance with the directive? The answer must be yes and reflection with a non interested party essential.

Some ideas on what that potential conversation could cover:

*Accumulations and aggregates of risk exposures, challenging key underlying assumptions

*Blind spots of experience and knowledge

*Correlations, crisis prevention and management, confluences of negative events

*Dated data, dread , dream, double or triple event scenarios and deep pockets syndrome

*Extended enterprise and stakeholder management, exposures inherent in the operations

*Fast forward thinking on current or past underwritten risk exposures

Ultimately there will certainly be some risks where the numbers will not be quantifiable  but still need to managed in the name of risk management.

We hope you would like to talk to us and look forward to hearing from you soon.

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Somewhere over the rainbow

Life will be easier and simpler one day but not in the foreseeable future given current circumstances. So since individually we do not think the same way or indeed the same thing, how do you as an organisation justify your collective decisions to the people who you count on for your continued existence?

Presumably you use accepted management methods to analyse factors affecting the current internal and external  environments in which your organisation operates such as SWOT or PESTLE, but you still need to continuously test their reliability because risk and uncertainty are dynamic in nature and effect.

Can we suggest you need to develop a better understanding of how volatile things are, test your assumptions against independent and objective outside points of view, check how credible the  facts and data upon which you make decisions are, understand the extremes and parameters of uncertainty,  think about how to look for the unintended consequences of risks  being taken, so that in the end of the decision making process you ensure meaningful and positive results for all concerned.

We can help you in your risk based decision making with our proprietary methods of risk management.

Don’t delay call us today?!

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RIO: Risk into Opportunity

RIO: Here we come?! Now is the time to think about your objectives and the outcomes you want bearing in mind the current global economic scene. The risks you face could be your new opportunities. Start the process by thinking how your people, places of business, processes and projects can be turned to your advantage by taking stock of human and mother nature, and human invention.We can assist your thought processes and help you turn these challenges into the opportunities of the future.You need to understand how to become a RIO: Risk Intelligent Organisation and increase your ROI: Return On Investment at the same time. Contact us soon.

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Have you seen an optician recently?!

Have you considered whether you need to challenge assumptions you may have about the societal conditions which make up the world in which your business, institution, or organisation operates?

Given the current economic climate is it time to reconsider the data and set of scenarios you currently use, to create a revised vision of the future for your organisation, over the short, medium and or even longer term?

Do you have enough knowledge and the right tools to be able to adapt and benefit from the new challenges currently facing you?

We can help you gather the evidence you need to turn this risk and uncertainty into and new set of choices.

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Art of the Possible

A timely reminder is due to think about the difference between probabalistic and possibilistic thinking in the world of risk and its management and in particular for the insurance sector. This is so important because in advice given since 1999 on corporate governance and risk managmeent by the ICAEW (The Centre for Business Performance,The Institute of Chartered Accountants in England & Wales,) and particularly in No surprises, guidance to directors of listed companies, they stated that Risk management is essential for reducing the probability that corporate objectives are jeopardised by unforeseen events.All that the company is trying to achieve can be affected by risk exposures.

Furthermore in their advice in how to implement Turnbull guidance on internal control they stated that the purpose of a risk management policy document is to set out clearly for all employees, the board’s attitude to risk and the appetite for risk, which it is prepared to accept. Directors should communicate clearly what actions they are taking to manage these risks, providing sufficient information to allow investors to make judgments’ about them.Even earlier than this the Operating and Financial Review, introduced for listed companies in July 1993, set out non-mandatory recommendations for listed companies to disclose information on risk outside the financial statements. It recommended a discussion ‘identifying the principal risks and, in qualitative terms, the nature of the potential impact on results.’

Perhaps we could say in summary this meant that all potential significant and material risks should be disclosed to investors.Where possible of course.

Then  9/11/2001 happened and new language was introduced to the world of risk and possibility by Donald Rumsfeld by way of unknowables.

The world of insurance uses historical data and probabalistic thinking in its approach to underwriting and managing risk  in the non-life sector.In liability, accident and health the future impact of today’s event, accident or emergency is considered because the claims to be paid will be in later years.This introduces possibility into their underwriters’ thinking.

The point to be made is that probability is favoured because this allows mathematics to be used.However the possibilty of things happening should still be considered, because despite not being able to put a number to an event, it doesn’t mean it will not happen ,and it still needs to be managed?! 

We don’t agree with Donald Rumsfeld that there will always be unknowables.Call us soon to find out more,whether you are an insurer or in another sector, about the use of our models of intelligent imagination in your processes of risk identification.They will make a considerable contribution to your thinking and enable risk appetite conversations to happen in a more informed way.

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What your world needs now!

What stage of an innovation strategy cycle are you at?

Incremental, Evolutionary or Radical!

From where we sit a stagnant economy and no positive social change appear to be the norm across a whole spectrum of public and private sector actors.Just treading water, keeping your head below the parapet and all the other cliches spring to mind. Where are the new ideas and creativity?

Need help with this? We guarantee you at least 7 new steps to aid change and innovation in a days review of your current operations and strategy.People are talking up complexity but we will simplify your problems.

Be proactive call us soon before this offer runs out or your competition gets in touch with us first.

Now is the time more than ever before to focus on creativity and innovation.

Happy New Year

Guy Taylor

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