Ten thoughts to bear in mind when developing scenarios analysis:
- The base line for the most part comes from economic theory and practice.Economists need to eat! They will and do justify over time driving both on the right and left hand side of the road!
- They use too much irrelevant past data in their thinking about the future.Beware of using too much quantitive and too little qualitiative thinking in your approach
- Don’t place too much emphasis on the statistics coming from “predetermined elements” without proper reflection and testing of assumptions
- The media we use and its’ interpretation of the news tends to be the basis of our world view
- It is difficult to be objective and independent in thinking about what could or should be
- Individual dogma arising out of “Urban myths,sacred cows,taboo and the untouchable subjects, plus the ghosts of the past,” need to be unearthed and apparent to all involved in the process
- Putting personal politics aside when creating a shared vision of the future is very difficult
- Risk means different things to different people and most particularly their professions’ view rules as king over everything else
- Remember we know the answer to most problems
- Finally objective research and thinking are critical components to getting the right result out of the process
The European Food Safety Authority define emerging risks as a risk resulting from a newly identified hazard to which a significant exposure may occur or from an unexpected new or increased significant exposure and/or susceptibility to a known hazard. Swiss Re as newly developing or changing risks which are difficult to quantify and which may have a major impact on an organisation. Lloyd’s of London as an issue that is perceived to be potentially significant but which may not be fully understood.
How does your organisation deal with the issue of potential or indeed possible impact of emerging risks to the achivement of your objectives?
We can help you with the prediction of emerging risks through the use of “intelligent imagination.”
Call us soon before the possibility of an emerging risk affects your competitive advantage.
Guy Taylor, Founder
In order to be the latter your organisational systems will allow for the reward of reliability and recognise the costs of failures.Your management style should communicate the big picture to everyone.Your structured systems will enable you to share learning through the use of dynamic risk review, and very specifically allow you to seek knowledge of things you don’t know.
With all of this you will be on your the way to creating the correct conditions for taking calculated risks.
If you need help with any of above please get in touch.
Welcome to “Britideas.”
Does your world need a little creativity and imagination right now? Are you able to create the solutions needed for your clients,customers or stakeholders in the new innovation economy? The race to innovate has not begun yet, are you on the starting block or still in the changing room?
Innovation is defined as “the alteration of what is established” (Oxford English Dictionary.) Innovation is not a single action but a total process of interrelated sub processes. It is not just the conception of a new idea, the invention of a new device, or the development of a new market. The process involves all of these things acting in an integrated fashion.
Let’s work together soon……..
Happy New Year (Chinese Year of the Rabbit!)
Guy Taylor, Founder