Treseder & Company

A timely reminder is due to think about the difference between probabalistic and possibilistic thinking in the world of risk and its management and in particular for the insurance sector. This is so important because in advice given since 1999 on corporate governance and risk managmeent by the ICAEW (The Centre for Business Performance,The Institute of Chartered Accountants in England & Wales,) and particularly in No surprises, guidance to directors of listed companies, they stated that Risk management is essential for reducing the probability that corporate objectives are jeopardised by unforeseen events.All that the company is trying to achieve can be affected by risk exposures.

Furthermore in their advice in how to implement Turnbull guidance on internal control they stated that the purpose of a risk management policy document is to set out clearly for all employees, the board’s attitude to risk and the appetite for risk, which it is prepared to accept. Directors should communicate clearly what actions they are taking to manage these risks, providing sufficient information to allow investors to make judgments’ about them.Even earlier than this the Operating and Financial Review, introduced for listed companies in July 1993, set out non-mandatory recommendations for listed companies to disclose information on risk outside the financial statements. It recommended a discussion ‘identifying the principal risks and, in qualitative terms, the nature of the potential impact on results.’

Perhaps we could say in summary this meant that all potential significant and material risks should be disclosed to investors.Where possible of course.

Then  9/11/2001 happened and new language was introduced to the world of risk and possibility by Donald Rumsfeld by way of unknowables.

The world of insurance uses historical data and probabalistic thinking in its approach to underwriting and managing risk  in the non-life sector.In liability, accident and health the future impact of today’s event, accident or emergency is considered because the claims to be paid will be in later years.This introduces possibility into their underwriters’ thinking.

The point to be made is that probability is favoured because this allows mathematics to be used.However the possibilty of things happening should still be considered, because despite not being able to put a number to an event, it doesn’t mean it will not happen ,and it still needs to be managed?! 

We don’t agree with Donald Rumsfeld that there will always be unknowables.Call us soon to find out more,whether you are an insurer or in another sector, about the use of our models of intelligent imagination in your processes of risk identification.They will make a considerable contribution to your thinking and enable risk appetite conversations to happen in a more informed way.

What stage of an innovation strategy cycle are you at?

Incremental, Evolutionary or Radical!

From where we sit a stagnant economy and no positive social change appear to be the norm across a whole spectrum of public and private sector actors.Just treading water, keeping your head below the parapet and all the other cliches spring to mind. Where are the new ideas and creativity?

Need help with this? We guarantee you at least 7 new steps to aid change and innovation in a days review of your current operations and strategy.People are talking up complexity but we will simplify your problems.

Be proactive call us soon before this offer runs out or your competition gets in touch with us first.

Now is the time more than ever before to focus on creativity and innovation.

Happy New Year

Guy Taylor

We have created a new framework for the analysis of risk and the  opportunities arising therefrom. Do you still suffer from “HICCUPS?”

HEALTH-dealing with the deadly killer diseases once and for all

IMMIGRATION-positive thinking on the global benefits to be had

CRIME-legalise and tax it to avoid government intervention

CLIMATE CHANGE-a wholesale worldwide mindset change

UNEMPLOYMENT-social innovation for job creation

POLLUTION-the avoidance of creating new diseases and ill health

SECURITY-of energy, food and water on locally sustainable basis

We can help you find a cure! Through collaboration with us you could create new thinking on how to move your organisation or business closer to dealing with some of these persistent problems and also begin to select new business opportunities.

Call us soon before your opposition does?!

Guy Taylor,Founder

Ten thoughts to bear in mind when developing scenarios analysis:

• The base line for the most part comes from economic theory and practice.Economists need to eat! They will and do justify over time driving both on the right and left hand side of the road!
• They use too much irrelevant past data in their thinking about the future.Beware of using too much quantitive and too little qualitiative thinking in your approach
• Don’t place too much emphasis on the statistics coming from “predetermined elements” without proper reflection and testing of assumptions
• The media we use and its’ interpretation of the news tends to be the basis of our world view
• It is difficult to be objective and independent in thinking about what could or should be
• Individual dogma arising out of “Urban myths,sacred cows,taboo and the untouchable subjects, plus the ghosts of the past,” need to be unearthed and apparent to all involved in the process
• Putting personal politics aside when creating a shared vision of the future is very difficult
• Risk means different things to different people and most particularly their professions’ view rules as king over everything else
• Remember we know the answer to most problems
• Finally objective research and thinking are critical components to getting the right result out of the process

The European Food Safety Authority define emerging risks as a risk resulting from a newly identified hazard to which a significant exposure may occur or from an unexpected new or increased significant exposure and/or susceptibility to a known hazard.Swiss Re as newly developing or changing risks which are difficult to quantify and which may have a major impact on an organisation.Lloyd’s of London as an issue that is perceived to be potentially significant but which may not be fully understood.

How does your organisation deal with the issue of potential or indeed possible impact of emerging risks to the achievement of your objectives?

We can help you with the prediction of emerging risks through the use of  our “intelligent imagination.”

Call us soon before the possibility of an emerging risk affects your competitive advantage.

Guy Taylor, Founder

In order to be the latter your organisational systems will allow for the reward of reliability and recognise the costs of failures.Your management style should communicate the big picture to everyone.Your structured systems will enable you to  share learning through the use of dynamic risk review, and very specifically allow you to seek knowledge of things you don’t know.

With all of this you will be on your the way to creating the correct conditions for taking calculated risks.

If you need help with any of above please get in touch.

Guy Taylor

Welcome to “Britideas.”

Does your world need a little creativity and imagination right now? Are you able to create the solutions needed for your clients,customers or stakeholders in the new innovation economy? The race to innovate has not begun yet, are you on the starting block or still in the changing room?

Innovation is defined as “the alteration of what is established” (Oxford English Dictionary.) Innovation is not a single action but a total process of interrelated sub processes. It is not just the conception of a new idea, the invention of a new device, or the development of a new market. The process involves all of these things acting in an integrated fashion.

Let’s work together soon……..

Happy New Year (Chinese Year of the Rabbit!)

Guy Taylor, Founder