Life’s too long to get it wrong!?

Ten thoughts to bear in mind when developing scenarios analysis:

  • The base line for the¬†most part comes from economic theory and practice.Economists need to eat! They will and do justify over time driving both on the right and left hand side of the road!
  • They use too much irrelevant past data in their thinking about the future.Beware of using too much quantitive¬†and too little qualitiative thinking in your approach
  • Don’t place too much emphasis on the statistics coming from “predetermined elements” without proper reflection and testing of assumptions
  • The media we use and its’ interpretation of the news tends to be the basis of our world view
  • It is difficult to be objective and independent in thinking about what could or should be
  • Individual dogma arising out of “Urban myths,sacred cows,taboo and the untouchable subjects, plus the ghosts of the past,” need to be unearthed and apparent to all involved in the process
  • Putting personal politics aside when creating a shared vision of the future is very difficult
  • Risk means different things to different people and most particularly their professions’ view rules as king over everything else
  • Remember we know the answer to most problems
  • Finally objective research and thinking are critical components to getting the right result out of the process

About Guy Taylor

I am a risk, strategy & innovation management researcher and leading edge thinker. I have a strong technical background and entrepreneurial ethos, plus I am a proven innovator of new business models.I have a good knowledge of Insurance, Energy & Natural Resources, Public, Pharmaceutical, Financial Service & third sectors, having worked with FTSE, and various government agencies. After a career break to obtain my Masters degree in Insurance & Risk Management, in 2000 I founded Treseder & Company, a private management consultancy practice advising in the public and private sectors.My specialties are:Strategy, Risk Identification, Innovation, Futures thinking,and Horizon scanning.I launched in 2010
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