Ten thoughts to bear in mind when developing scenarios analysis:
- The base line for the most part comes from economic theory and practice.Economists need to eat! They will and do justify over time driving both on the right and left hand side of the road!
- They use too much irrelevant past data in their thinking about the future.Beware of using too much quantitive and too little qualitiative thinking in your approach
- Don’t place too much emphasis on the statistics coming from “predetermined elements” without proper reflection and testing of assumptions
- The media we use and its’ interpretation of the news tends to be the basis of our world view
- It is difficult to be objective and independent in thinking about what could or should be
- Individual dogma arising out of “Urban myths,sacred cows,taboo and the untouchable subjects, plus the ghosts of the past,” need to be unearthed and apparent to all involved in the process
- Putting personal politics aside when creating a shared vision of the future is very difficult
- Risk means different things to different people and most particularly their professions’ view rules as king over everything else
- Remember we know the answer to most problems
- Finally objective research and thinking are critical components to getting the right result out of the process
